On November 19, 2013 there was a meeting of the Russian Public Council for International Cooperation and Public Diplomacy at the Public Chamber, devoted to the situation in Afghanistan in connection with the withdrawal of international coalition forces in 2014 and the CSTO measures to ensure stability in the Central Asian region.
The main question from subject matter experts and civil society representatives was how this could affect international security.
Council Chairman and former UN Deputy Secretary General Sergei Ordzhonikidze stressed that «it is natural to expect a negative impact of the development of the situation in Afghanistan on CSTO member states.
«What awaits Russia after 2014? This threatening instability on the southern borders, the activation of militant camps in Afghanistan, the establishment of U.S. military facilities,» said Sergei Ordzhonikidze, chairman of the Russian Public Council for International Cooperation and Public Diplomacy.
Ordzhonikidze noted that international security forces, with U.S. troops at their core, have never achieved a breakthrough in the fight against terrorist and radical groups, for which, in fact, the invasion occurred. «On the whole, the situation in Afghanistan is extremely tense. This is connected with the deaths of civilians and the neglect of Afghans by foreign militaries,» Ordzhonikidze stressed.
Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Nikolai Bordyuzha confirmed that the situation in the region was far from ideal. This year the organization managed to confiscate over 300 tons of drugs and the arsenal of confiscated weapons from the militants, according to Bordyuzha, would be enough for «an entire division».
CSTO experts have recently documented the tense situation on the Afghan-Tajik border.
«Taliban units appear almost regularly in the near border area,» Bordyuzha said. — There are clashes with Afghan border guards. The number of Afghan border posts has been almost halved. From time to time big bandit formations appear. In one year alone, the number of fighting has doubled.
Nikolai Bordyuzha notes that the CSTO systematically monitors the situation and informs the leadership of the CSTO member- countries about it in details. The organization is not afraid of approaching 2014 — the Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization stated that there is «a scenario of the situation development.
Veronika Krasheninnikova, member of the Public Chamber, noted that in her opinion, 2014 will see «not a withdrawal but a transformation of the military presence. «The U.S. will not withdraw from Afghanistan — just as they did not withdraw from Germany and Japan 68 years after the end of the Great Patriotic War,» the expert believes.
At the same time, Krasheninnikova does not think it is possible to count on the effectiveness of U.S. military forces in the region. «In fact, only Russia, together with partners in the region and regional organizations, especially the CSTO, can be responsible for the security of southern borders,» the Chamber member stressed.
The potential threat to Russia due to the situation in Afghanistan was confirmed by the rest of the panelists.
«We need to be more serious about what may happen in Afghanistan. And think through the scenario in advance, based on the most negative scenario of the situation,» said OP member Maxim Grigoriev.
«It is necessary to think over some technologies through public organizations, to find and support those political forces that could be our allies in these countries,» OP member Georgy Fedorov expressed his suggestions.
As Sergei Ordzhonikidze noted in his closing remarks, it is already necessary to make efforts at the level of state and public diplomacy, in military political and other fields to neutralize the looming threat in the immediate vicinity of our southern borders.
«We need to reach out and begin negotiations with countries that will potentially be affected by Afghan instability. We need to be prepared for the fact that terrorists may not be that far from our homeland’s capital,» concluded Sergei Ordzhonikidze.
At the end of the meeting a Resolution was drawn up.
Press Service of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation